说明：  使用贝叶斯网络进行预测。贝叶斯网络又称信度网络，是Bayes方法的扩展，是目前不确定知识表达和推理领域最有效的理论模型之一。
(Bayesian network is used for prediction. Bayesian network, also known as belief network, is an extension of Bayes method and one of the most effective theoretical models in the field of uncertain knowledge representation and reasoning.)