ecdc-covid19-admissions
所属分类：生物医药技术
开发工具：R
文件大小：986KB
下载次数：0
上传日期：2023-05-14 15:15:38
上 传 者：
sh-1993
说明： ecdc-covid19招生，欧洲预测中心招生预测
(ecdc-covid19-admissions,Admissions forecasts for the European Forecast Hub)
文件列表:
.Rprofile (26, 2021-12-06)
DESCRIPTION (582, 2021-12-06)
R (0, 2021-12-06)
R\data_fns.R (2894, 2021-12-06)
R\format_fns.R (2202, 2021-12-06)
R\plot_fns.R (4437, 2021-12-06)
R\utils.R (1696, 2021-12-06)
activate.R (18321, 2021-12-06)
data (0, 2021-12-06)
data\figures (0, 2021-12-06)
data\figures\current_admissions_forecast.pdf (21975, 2021-12-06)
data\figures\current_case_forecast.pdf (14858, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format (0, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-10-epiforecasts-arimareg.csv (59988, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-10-epiforecasts-caseconv.csv (60012, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-10-epiforecasts-tsensemble.csv (59879, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-17-epiforecasts-arimareg.csv (60055, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-17-epiforecasts-caseconv.csv (60103, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-17-epiforecasts-tsensemble.csv (59966, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-24-epiforecasts-arimareg.csv (60265, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-24-epiforecasts-caseconv.csv (60301, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-24-epiforecasts-tsensemble.csv (59981, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-31-epiforecasts-arimareg.csv (60403, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-31-epiforecasts-caseconv.csv (60458, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-10-31-epiforecasts-tsensemble.csv (60088, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-07-epiforecasts-arimareg.csv (48244, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-07-epiforecasts-caseconv.csv (48295, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-07-epiforecasts-tsensemble.csv (48106, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-21-epiforecasts-arimareg.csv (42325, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-21-epiforecasts-caseconv.csv (42432, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-21-epiforecasts-tsensemble.csv (42317, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-28-epiforecasts-arimareg.csv (84467, 2021-12-06)
data\forecasts-format\2021-11-28-epiforecasts-caseconv.csv (84584, 2021-12-06)
... ...
# COVID-19 hospital admissions forecasts for the ECDC Forecast Hub
## Current forecasts
The most recent forecasts (from 27 November 2021) cover the following
locations: Belgium (BE), Czechia (CZ), Denmark (DK), Estonia (EE),
France (FR), Greece (GR), Iceland (IS), Ireland (IE), Latvia (LV), Malta
(MT), Netherlands (NL), Norway (NO), Slovenia (SI), United Kingdom (GB).
## Methods
### Autoregressive time series ensemble
A mean ensemble of three autoregressive time series models: ARIMA, ETS
and a “naive” model (where future admissions are equal to the
most-recently observed admissions). Each of the three time series models
are fit independently to weekly incident admissions data. The
mean-ensemble quantile forecast is made by taking the mean of the three
quantile forecasts.
### ARIMA regression
A regression model with ARIMA errors, with 1-week lagged COVID-19 cases
as a predictor. The model is fit with weekly admissions/cases data. To
make forecasts of future admissions for a forecast horizon of two weeks
or more, we use the [ECDC Hub ensemble case
forecast](https://github.com/sophiemeakin/ecdc-covid19-admissions/blob/master/https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/tree/main/data-processed/EuroCOVIDhub-ensemble).
### Case convolution
A convolution of COVID-19 cases and a report-to-admission delay
distribution. The model is fit with weekly admissions/cases data. To
make forecasts of future admissions, we use the [ECDC Hub ensemble case
forecast](https://github.com/sophiemeakin/ecdc-covid19-admissions/blob/master/https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/tree/main/data-processed/EuroCOVIDhub-ensemble).
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