covid19-forecast-hub-europe
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说明: 欧洲Covid-19预测中心。,
(European Covid-19 Forecast Hub.,)
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# European COVID-19 Forecast Hub
We are aggregating forecasts of new cases and deaths due to Covid-19
over the next four weeks in countries across Europe and the UK.
##### Latest forecasts
- View the [current
forecasts](https://covid19forecasthub.eu/visualisation)
- We publish a weekly
[evaluation](https://covid19forecasthub.eu/reports) of current
forecasts
- Raw forecast files are in the
[data-processed](https://github.com/european-modelling-hubs/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/tree/main/data-processed)
folder
##### README contents
- [Quick start](#quick-start)
- [About Covid-19 forecast hubs](#about-covid-19-forecasting-hubs)
- [European forecast hub team](#european-forecast-hub-team)
- [Data license and reuse](#data-license-and-reuse)
## Quick start
This is a brief outline for anyone considering contributing a forecast.
For a detailed guide on how to structure and submit a forecast, please
read the [technical wiki](../../wiki).
#### Set up
Before contributing for the first time: - Read the guide for [preparing
to submit](../../wiki/Preparing-to-submit) - Create a [team
directory](../../wiki/Creating-a-team-directory) - Add your
[metadata](../../wiki/Metadata) and a [license](../../wiki/Licensing)
#### Forecasting
We require some forecast parameters so that we can compare and ensemble
forecasts. All forecasts should use the following structure:
| Parameter | Description |
| --------- | ------------------------------------- |
| Target | Cases, hospitalisations and/or deaths |
| Count | Incident |
| Geography | EU/EFTA/UK nations (any/all) |
| Frequency | Weekly |
| Horizon | 1 to 4 weeks |
There is no obligation to submit forecasts for all suggested targets or
horizons, and it is up to you to decide which you are comfortable
forecasting with your model.
We have written more about forecast targets, horizons, and locations in
the [guide](../../wiki/Targets-and-horizons).
###### Dates
We use Epidemiological Weeks (EW) defined by the [US
CDC](https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/document/MMWR_Week_overview.pdf). Each
week starts on Sunday and ends on Saturday. We provide more details
[here](../../wiki/Targets-and-horizons#date-format), and
[templates](../../template) to convert dates to EW weeks (and vice
versa).
###### Truth data
We base evaluations on country level data from [Johns Hopkins
University](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series).
#### Submitting
Forecasts should be submitted on Monday by opening a pull request in
this repository. So that we can evaluate and ensemble forecasts, we ask
for a specific file structure and naming format: our wiki contains a
detailed [guide](../../wiki/Forecast-format). If you have technical
difficulties with submission, try
[troubleshooting](../..wiki/Troubleshooting-pull-requests) or get in
touch by raising an [issue](../issues).
###### Evaluating and ensembling
After teams have submitted their forecasts, we create an ensemble
forecast. Note that the ensemble only includes the forecasts that
completely match the standard format (for example those with all the
specified quantiles). See the [inclusion
criteria](../../wiki/Ensembling-and-evaluation) for more details.
We also publish some weekly evaluation across forecasting models.
## About Covid-19 forecasting hubs
This effort parallels forecasting hubs in the US and Germany. We follow
a similar structure and data format, and re-use software provided by the
ReichLab.
- The [US COVID-19 Forecast
Hub](https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub) is run by the
UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence based at
the [Reich Lab](https://reichlab.io/).
- The [German and Polish COVID-19 Forecast
Hub](https://github.com/KITmetricslab/covid19-forecast-hub-de) is
run by members of the [Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
(KIT)](https://statistik.econ.kit.edu/index.ph) and the
[Computational Statistics Group at Heidelberg Institute for
Theoretical Studies](https://www.h-its.org/research/cst/).
### European forecast hub team
This repository was created by [Epiforecasts](https://epiforecasts.io),
supported by grant funding from the [European Centre for Disease Control
and Prevention (ECDC)](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/). It was based on and
supported by members of the US, and German and Polish Forecast Hubs and
is now maintained by the ECDC.
Direct contributors to this repository include (in alphabetical order):
- Daniel Wolffram
- Hugo Gruson
- Jannik Deuschel
- [Johannes
Bracher](https://statistik.econ.kit.edu/mitarbeiter_2902.php)
- Katharine Sherratt
- Nikos Bosse
- [Sebastian
Funk](https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/funk.sebastian)
The [interactive visualization
tool](https://covid19forecasthub.eu/visualisation/) (code available
[here](https://github.com/SignaleRKI/forecast-europe)) has been
developed by the [Signale Team at Robert Koch
Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/signals/signals_node.html):
- Fabian Eckelmann - Knut Perseke - Alexander Ullrich
### Data license and reuse
- The forecasts assembled in this repository have been created by
independent teams. Most provide a license in their respective
subfolder of `data-processed`.
- Parts of the processing, analysis and validation code have been
taken or adapted from the [US Covid-19 forecast
hub](https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub) and the
[Germany/Poland Covid-19 forecast
hub](https://github.com/KITmetricslab/covid19-forecast-hub-de) both
under an [MIT
license](https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/blob/master/LICENSE).
- All code contained in this repository is under the [MIT
license](/LICENSE). **Please get in touch with us to re-use
materials from this repository.**
To cite the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub in project in publications,
please use the following references:
Methodology and evaluation:
> Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B.,
> Sandman, F., … & Funk, S. (2022). Predictive performance of
> multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.
> *medRxiv*. DOI:
Data:
> NA
Bibtex
``` bibtex
NA
```
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