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# CAVIAR Investigation Network Visualisation & Analysis ## Overview Analysis of a 2-year criminal network with 101 players, disturbed by police actions. Utilizes graph visualization and centrality measures to identify key figures and trends. Highlights the effectiveness of degree centrality in revealing vital network players and their evolving roles. ## Methodology The analysis began by organizing the data into a networkx graph to explore connections between players. The methodology included: 1. Data Organization: Preparing and structuring data for analysis. 2. Graph Visualization: Creating undirected graphs to visualize the network. 3. Network Analysis: Examining nodes and edges, including centrality measures (degree, betweenness, and eigenvector) to identify central players. 4. Centrality Analysis: Calculating and interpreting centrality measures to determine the most connected, influential, and powerful players. 5. Evolution Study: Monitoring changes across all phases to predict future network behaviors, utilizing link analysis and disruption techniques to understand the network's hierarchy and adaptability. This approach facilitated a deep dive into the network's structure, highlighting the roles and importance of various players over time. ## Data Source The dataset is housed in the CAVIAR directory of a comprehensive data archive, representing 11 distinct phases of wiretap data collected during the operation from 1994 to 1996. This operation was a collaborative effort between the Montréal police and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police of Canada. ## Seizures Summary The following table provides a concise overview of the seizures made throughout the investigation, including the phase, amount in USD, and the specifics of each seizure: | Phase | Seizures | Amount (USD) | Details | |-------|----------|--------------|--------------------------------| | 4 | 1 | 2,500,000 | 300 kg of marijuana | | 6 | 3 | 1,300,000 | 30 kg marijuana + 2 kg cocaine | | 7 | 1 | 3,500,000 | 401 kg of marijuana | | 8 | 1 | 360,000 | 9 kg of cocaine | | 9 | 2 | 4,300,000 | 2 kg cocaine + 500 kg marijuana| | 10 | 1 | 18,700,000 | 2200 kg of marijuana | | 11 | 2 | 1,300,000 | 23 kg of cocaine | ## Network Composition The investigation's focus was on a network comprising 110 players, including traffickers and various non-traffickers like financial investors and importation business owners. Initially targeting Daniel Serero, the network's alleged mastermind, the project traces the network's shift in operations and key player roles over time. ## Key Players Below is a table outlining the key figures within the criminal network and their respective roles: | Name | Unique ID | Role | |-----------------------|-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Daniel Serero | n1 | Mastermind of the network. | | Pierre Perlini | n3 | Principal lieutenant of Serero, executing his instructions. | | Alain Levy | n83 | Investor and transporter of money. | | Gérard Levy | n86 | Investor and transporter of money. | | Wallace Lee | n85 | Manages financial affairs as the network's accountant. | | Gaspard Lino | n6 | Broker located in Spain. | | Samir Rabbat | n11 | Provider in Morocco. | | Lee Gilbert | n88 | Trusted financial manager for Wallace Lee, later became an informer. | | Beverly Ashton | n106 | Spouse of Lino, involved in transporting money and documents. | | Antonio Iannacci | n89 | Investor. | | Mohammed Echouafni | n84 | Moroccan investor. | | Richard Gleeson | n5 | Tasked with recuperating marijuana. | | Bruno de Quinzio | n8 | Tasked with recuperating marijuana. | | Gabrielle Casale | n76 | Tasked with recuperating marijuana. | | Roderik Janouska | n77 | Individual with airport contacts. | | Patrick Lee | n87 | Investor. | | Salvatore Panetta | n82 | Manager of transport arrangements. | | Steve Cunha | n96 | Transport manager and owner of a legitimate import company, later an informer. | | Ernesto Morales | n12 | Principal organizer of cocaine import, intermediary between Colombians and the network. | | Oscar Nieri | n17 | Handyman for Morales. | | Richard Brebner | n80 | Transported cocaine from the US to Montréal. | | Ricardo Negrinotti | n33 | Took possession of cocaine in the US to hand off to Brebner. | | Johnny Pacheco | n16 | Cocaine provider. | ## Analysis This project undertakes the analysis of time-varying network data to map out the structure, dynamics, and evolution of the criminal network. By leveraging graph visualization and centrality measures, we reveal the adaptation strategies of network players in response to law enforcement interventions. ## Conclusion Analysis reveals Daniel Serero (n1) as the network's mastermind, consistently the most connected across phases. Pierre Perlini (n3) emerges as a key figure, especially post-Phase 4, indicating a hierarchical network evolution with well-structured roles. Ernesto Morales (n12) expands the network post-seizure, showcasing the network's resilience and strategic adaptability. This study highlights the network's capacity for quick supplier changes and the formation of a hierarchical structure over time. ## Research Paper For further reading and a deeper understanding of the methodologies used, refer to the research paper available at [Modeling Verdict Outcomes Using Social Network Measures](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292304919_Modeling_Verdict_Outcomes_Using_Social_Network_Measures_The_Watergate_and_Caviar_Network_Cases). ## Usage Data files (e.g.,'phase1.csv', 'phase2.csv', ...) contain wiretap correspondences between network players, identified by unique ids. The project includes scripts to convert these ids to strings (e.g., 'n1', 'n2', ...) for better readability and creates network graphs for each phase, stored in the 'G' dictionary.

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