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Earthquake Prediction Based on Improved BP Neural Network
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内容介绍
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta name="generator" content="pdf2htmlEX"> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge,chrome=1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://static.pudn.com/base/css/base.min.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://static.pudn.com/base/css/fancy.min.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://static.pudn.com/prod/directory_preview_static/6263705a4c65f41259b166ab/raw.css"> <script src="https://static.pudn.com/base/js/compatibility.min.js"></script> <script src="https://static.pudn.com/base/js/pdf2htmlEX.min.js"></script> <script> try{ pdf2htmlEX.defaultViewer = new pdf2htmlEX.Viewer({}); }catch(e){} </script> <title></title> </head> <body> <div id="sidebar" style="display: none"> <div id="outline"> </div> </div> <div id="pf1" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="1"><div class="pc pc1 w0 h0"><img class="bi x0 y0 w1 h1" alt="" src="https://static.pudn.com/prod/directory_preview_static/6263705a4c65f41259b166ab/bg1.jpg"><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y1 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Journal<span class="_ _0"> </span>of<span class="_ _0"> </span>Information<span class="_ _0"> </span>&amp;<span class="_ _0"> </span>Computational<span class="_ _0"> </span>Science<span class="_ _0"> </span>11:5<span class="_ _0"> </span>(2014)<span class="_ _1"> </span>1491&#8211;1499<span class="_ _2"> </span>Marc<span class="_ _3"></span>h<span class="_ _0"> </span>20,<span class="_ _0"> </span>2014</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y2 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Av<span class="_ _4"></span>ailable<span class="_ _0"> </span>at<span class="_ _0"> </span>h<span class="_ _3"></span>ttp://www.joics.com</div><div class="t m0 x2 h3 y3 ff2 fs1 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Earthquak<span class="_ _4"></span>e<span class="_ _5"> </span>Prediction<span class="_ _5"> </span>Based<span class="_ _5"> </span>on<span class="_ _5"> </span>Impro<span class="_ _4"></span>v<span class="_ _4"></span>ed<span class="_ _5"> </span>BP</div><div class="t m0 x3 h3 y4 ff2 fs1 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Neural<span class="_ _5"> </span>Net<span class="_ _4"></span>w<span class="_ _4"></span>ork</div><div class="t m0 x4 h4 y5 ff3 fs2 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Yizhong<span class="_ _6"> </span>Liu</div><div class="t m0 x5 h5 y6 ff1 fs3 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">a<span class="ff4">,<span class="_ _7"></span><span class="ff5 fs2">&#8727;</span></span></div><div class="t m0 x6 h4 y5 ff3 fs2 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">,<span class="_ _8"> </span>F<span class="_ _9"></span>eiy<span class="_ _4"></span>an<span class="_ _6"> </span>Zhou</div><div class="t m0 x7 h5 y6 ff1 fs3 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">b<span class="ff4">,<span class="_ _7"></span><span class="ff5 fs2">&#8727;</span></span></div><div class="t m0 x8 h6 y7 ff6 fs4 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">a</div><div class="t m0 x9 h7 y8 ff7 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Scho<span class="_ _4"></span>ol<span class="_ _a"> </span>of<span class="_ _a"> </span>Mathematics<span class="_ _0"> </span>and<span class="_ _a"> </span>Statistics,<span class="_ _a"> </span>Guizhou<span class="_ _a"> </span>University<span class="_ _a"> </span>of<span class="_ _a"> </span>Financ<span class="_ _4"></span>e<span class="_ _a"> </span>and<span class="_ _a"> </span>Ec<span class="_ _4"></span>onomics</div><div class="t m0 xa h7 y9 ff7 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Guiyang<span class="_ _a"> </span>550025,<span class="_ _0"> </span>China</div><div class="t m0 xb h6 ya ff6 fs4 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">b</div><div class="t m0 xc h7 yb ff7 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Scho<span class="_ _4"></span>ol<span class="_ _a"> </span>of<span class="_ _a"> </span>Information<span class="_ _0"> </span>and<span class="_ _a"> </span>Ele<span class="_ _3"></span>ctric<span class="_ _4"></span>al<span class="_ _a"> </span>Engine<span class="_ _4"></span>ering,<span class="_ _a"> </span>Beijing<span class="_ _0"> </span>Institute<span class="_ _a"> </span>of<span class="_ _a"> </span>Gr<span class="_ _4"></span>aphic<span class="_ _a"> </span>Communic<span class="_ _4"></span>ation</div><div class="t m0 xd h7 yc ff7 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Beijing<span class="_ _a"> </span>102600,<span class="_ _0"> </span>China</div><div class="t m0 x1 h8 yd ff8 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Abstract</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 ye ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Arti&#64257;cial<span class="_ _6"> </span>neural<span class="_ _6"> </span>netw<span class="_ _4"></span>ork<span class="_ _6"> </span>is<span class="_ _6"> </span>a<span class="_ _6"> </span>new<span class="_ _6"> </span>mathematical<span class="_ _b"> </span>mo<span class="_ _c"></span>deling,<span class="_ _b"> </span>and<span class="_ _6"> </span>the<span class="_ _6"> </span>application<span class="_ _6"> </span>&#64257;eld<span class="_ _6"> </span>of<span class="_ _6"> </span>which<span class="_ _6"> </span>is<span class="_ _6"> </span>v<span class="_ _3"></span>ery</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 yf ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">extensiv<span class="_ _3"></span>e.<span class="_ _b"> </span>Uncertaint<span class="_ _4"></span>y<span class="_ _a"> </span>in<span class="_ _0"> </span>the<span class="_ _a"> </span>ground-motion<span class="_ _0"> </span>amplitudes<span class="_ _a"> </span>that<span class="_ _0"> </span>will<span class="_ _0"> </span>b<span class="_ _c"></span>e<span class="_ _a"> </span>realized<span class="_ _0"> </span>from<span class="_ _a"> </span>earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>es<span class="_ _0"> </span>plays<span class="_ _0"> </span>a</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y10 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">critical<span class="_ _d"> </span>role<span class="_ _d"> </span>in<span class="_ _d"> </span>seismic<span class="_ _d"> </span>hazard<span class="_ _d"> </span>analysis.<span class="_ _6"> </span>The<span class="_ _d"> </span>predisposing<span class="_ _d"> </span>factors<span class="_ _d"> </span>of<span class="_ _d"> </span>earthquake<span class="_ _d"> </span>are<span class="_ _d"> </span>v<span class="_ _4"></span>arious<span class="_ _d"> </span>and<span class="_ _d"> </span>earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>e</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y11 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">magnitude<span class="_ _e"> </span>prediction<span class="_ _e"> </span>is<span class="_ _e"> </span>di&#64259;cult.<span class="_ _f"> </span>Considering<span class="_ _e"> </span>the<span class="_ _e"> </span>strong<span class="_ _e"> </span>fault<span class="_ _e"> </span>toleran<span class="_ _3"></span>t<span class="_ _e"> </span>abilit<span class="_ _3"></span>y<span class="_ _e"> </span>and<span class="_ _e"> </span>fast<span class="_ _e"> </span>velocity<span class="_ _e"> </span>of</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y12 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">prediction<span class="_ _b"> </span>of<span class="_ _e"> </span>neural<span class="_ _b"> </span>netw<span class="_ _4"></span>orks,<span class="_ _e"> </span>neural<span class="_ _e"> </span>net<span class="_ _4"></span>works<span class="_ _b"> </span>are<span class="_ _e"> </span>in<span class="_ _4"></span>vestigated<span class="_ _b"> </span>for<span class="_ _b"> </span>predicting<span class="_ _e"> </span>the<span class="_ _b"> </span>magnitude<span class="_ _e"> </span>of<span class="_ _b"> </span>the</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y13 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">largest<span class="_ _b"> </span>seismic<span class="_ _e"> </span>ev<span class="_ _4"></span>ents<span class="_ _b"> </span>and<span class="_ _e"> </span>can<span class="_ _b"> </span>get<span class="_ _e"> </span>goo<span class="_ _c"></span>d<span class="_ _e"> </span>prediction<span class="_ _b"> </span>e&#64256;ect.<span class="_ _10"> </span>An<span class="_ _b"> </span>e&#64259;cient<span class="_ _b"> </span>metho<span class="_ _c"></span>d<span class="_ _e"> </span>suc<span class="_ _4"></span>h<span class="_ _e"> </span>as<span class="_ _b"> </span>the<span class="_ _e"> </span>LM-BP</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y14 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">algorithm<span class="_ _11"> </span>is<span class="_ _11"> </span>in<span class="_ _3"></span>tro<span class="_ _c"></span>duced<span class="_ _11"> </span>to<span class="_ _11"> </span>predict<span class="_ _11"> </span>the<span class="_ _11"> </span>earthquake.<span class="_ _12"> </span>The<span class="_ _11"> </span>results<span class="_ _11"> </span>sho<span class="_ _3"></span>w<span class="_ _11"> </span>that<span class="_ _11"> </span>the<span class="_ _11"> </span>metho<span class="_ _c"></span>d<span class="_ _11"> </span>by<span class="_ _a"> </span>the<span class="_ _11"> </span>LM-BP</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y15 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">algorithm<span class="_ _13"> </span>is<span class="_ _13"> </span>e&#64256;ectiv<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _13"> </span>and<span class="_ _13"> </span>feasible<span class="_ _13"> </span>for<span class="_ _13"> </span>earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _13"> </span>prediction.<span class="_ _6"> </span>Compared<span class="_ _13"> </span>with<span class="_ _13"> </span>some<span class="_ _13"> </span>other<span class="_ _13"> </span>algorithms,<span class="_ _13"> </span>the</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y16 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">LM-BP<span class="_ _0"> </span>neural<span class="_ _0"> </span>algorithm<span class="_ _0"> </span>has<span class="_ _0"> </span>faster<span class="_ _0"> </span>conv<span class="_ _4"></span>ergence<span class="_ _0"> </span>and<span class="_ _0"> </span>higher<span class="_ _0"> </span>precision<span class="_ _0"> </span>accuracy<span class="_ _4"></span>.</div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y17 ff7 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Keywor<span class="_ _4"></span>ds<span class="_ _14"></span><span class="ff1">:<span class="_ _0"> </span>Earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _0"> </span>Prediction;<span class="_ _0"> </span>BP<span class="_ _0"> </span>Neural<span class="_ _0"> </span>Netw<span class="_ _4"></span>ork;<span class="_ _0"> </span>LM<span class="_ _0"> </span>Algorithm;<span class="_ _0"> </span>Conjugate<span class="_ _0"> </span>Gradient</span></div><div class="t m0 x1 h3 y18 ff2 fs1 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">1<span class="_ _15"> </span>In<span class="_ _4"></span>tro<span class="_ _16"></span>duction</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y19 ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _a"> </span>prediction<span class="_ _11"> </span>is<span class="_ _a"> </span>one<span class="_ _11"> </span>of<span class="_ _a"> </span>the<span class="_ _a"> </span>world<span class="_ _a"> </span>recognized<span class="_ _a"> </span>scienti&#64257;c<span class="_ _a"> </span>problems.<span class="_ _17"> </span>Prediction<span class="_ _a"> </span>of<span class="_ _11"> </span>the<span class="_ _a"> </span>time</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y1a ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">of<span class="_ _11"> </span>occurrence,<span class="_ _11"> </span>magnitude<span class="_ _11"> </span>and<span class="_ _a"> </span>so<span class="_ _11"> </span>on<span class="_ _11"> </span>has<span class="_ _a"> </span>b<span class="_ _c"></span>een<span class="_ _11"> </span>is<span class="_ _11"> </span>an<span class="_ _a"> </span>imp<span class="_ _c"></span>ortant<span class="_ _a"> </span>task<span class="_ _11"> </span>of<span class="_ _11"> </span>geograph<span class="_ _4"></span>y<span class="_ _11"> </span>problem<span class="_ _11"> </span>study<span class="_ _9"></span>.</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y1b ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _13"> </span>prediction<span class="_ _13"> </span>is<span class="_ _0"> </span>a<span class="_ _13"> </span>highly<span class="_ _0"> </span>complex<span class="_ _13"> </span>and<span class="_ _0"> </span>in<span class="_ _3"></span>tractable<span class="_ _13"> </span>problem.<span class="_ _b"> </span>Accurate<span class="_ _0"> </span>earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _13"> </span>predic-</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y1c ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">tion<span class="_ _11"> </span>can<span class="_ _6"> </span>help<span class="_ _6"> </span>p<span class="_ _c"></span>eople<span class="_ _11"> </span>to<span class="_ _6"> </span>take<span class="_ _11"> </span>timely<span class="_ _11"> </span>and<span class="_ _6"> </span>e&#64256;ective<span class="_ _11"> </span>measures<span class="_ _11"> </span>and<span class="_ _6"> </span>reduce<span class="_ _6"> </span>casualties<span class="_ _11"> </span>and<span class="_ _6"> </span>economic</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y1d ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">loss.<span class="_ _1"> </span>Seismic<span class="_ _11"> </span>w<span class="_ _3"></span>ork<span class="_ _11"> </span>had<span class="_ _6"> </span>great<span class="_ _6"> </span>dev<span class="_ _3"></span>elopmen<span class="_ _3"></span>t<span class="_ _11"> </span>after<span class="_ _6"> </span>the<span class="_ _6"> </span>earthquak<span class="_ _4"></span>e<span class="_ _6"> </span>in<span class="_ _6"> </span>Xingtai<span class="_ _11"> </span>in<span class="_ _6"> </span>China.<span class="_ _1"> </span>In<span class="_ _11"> </span>March</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y1e ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">1966,<span class="_ _11"> </span>Xingtai<span class="_ _a"> </span>in<span class="_ _11"> </span>Hebei<span class="_ _11"> </span>successiv<span class="_ _3"></span>ely<span class="_ _a"> </span>had<span class="_ _11"> </span>6.8<span class="_ _a"> </span>and<span class="_ _11"> </span>7.2<span class="_ _11"> </span>lev<span class="_ _4"></span>el<span class="_ _11"> </span>earthquak<span class="_ _4"></span>es<span class="_ _11"> </span>that<span class="_ _a"> </span>resulted<span class="_ _11"> </span>in<span class="_ _a"> </span>great<span class="_ _11"> </span>loss</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y1f ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">and<span class="_ _18"> </span>caused<span class="_ _18"> </span>the<span class="_ _18"> </span>high<span class="_ _18"> </span>atten<span class="_ _3"></span>tion<span class="_ _18"> </span>of<span class="_ _18"> </span>the<span class="_ _18"> </span>go<span class="_ _3"></span>v<span class="_ _3"></span>ernmen<span class="_ _4"></span>t.<span class="_ _b"> </span>Then<span class="_ _18"> </span>under<span class="_ _18"> </span>the<span class="_ _18"> </span>auspices<span class="_ _18"> </span>of<span class="_ _18"> </span>the<span class="_ _18"> </span>National<span class="_ _18"> </span>Science</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y20 ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">and<span class="_ _18"> </span>T<span class="_ _4"></span>ec<span class="_ _4"></span>hnology<span class="_ _18"> </span>Committee,<span class="_ _13"> </span>a<span class="_ _13"> </span>comprehensiv<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _18"> </span>plan<span class="_ _13"> </span>ab<span class="_ _c"></span>out<span class="_ _18"> </span>earthquake<span class="_ _18"> </span>researc<span class="_ _3"></span>h<span class="_ _18"> </span>was<span class="_ _18"> </span>form<span class="_ _4"></span>ulated<span class="_ _13"> </span>and</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y21 ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">earthquak<span class="_ _3"></span>e<span class="_ _0"> </span>prediction<span class="_ _0"> </span>test<span class="_ _0"> </span>was<span class="_ _13"> </span>immediately<span class="_ _a"> </span>launc<span class="_ _3"></span>hed.<span class="_ _b"> </span>Later,<span class="_ _0"> </span>the<span class="_ _a"> </span>uni&#64257;ed<span class="_ _0"> </span>leadership<span class="_ _0"> </span>and<span class="_ _0"> </span>manage-</div><div class="t m0 x1 h9 y22 ff3 fs5 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">men<span class="_ _3"></span>t<span class="_ _e"> </span>of<span class="_ _e"> </span>the<span class="_ _b"> </span>national<span class="_ _e"> </span>seismological<span class="_ _e"> </span>w<span class="_ _3"></span>ork<span class="_ _e"> </span>w<span class="_ _4"></span>ere<span class="_ _e"> </span>strengthened.<span class="_ _10"> </span>Seismic<span class="_ _e"> </span>observ<span class="_ _4"></span>ation<span class="_ _e"> </span>system<span class="_ _19"> </span>with</div><div class="t m0 xe ha y23 ff9 fs6 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">&#8727;</div><div class="t m0 xb hb y24 ff1 fs3 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Corresp<span class="_ _c"></span>onding<span class="_ _13"> </span>author.</div><div class="t m0 xb hb y25 ff7 fs3 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">Email<span class="_ _13"> </span>addr<span class="_ _3"></span>esses:<span class="_ _b"> </span><span class="ffa">lyz737702@163.com<span class="_ _13"> </span><span class="ff1">(Yizhong<span class="_ _13"> </span>Liu),<span class="_ _13"> </span></span>zhfyyf@126.com<span class="_ _13"> </span><span class="ff1">(F<span class="_ _4"></span>eiy<span class="_ _4"></span>an<span class="_ _13"> </span>Zhou).</span></span></div><div class="t m0 x1 h2 y26 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">1548&#8211;7741<span class="_ _18"> </span>/<span class="_ _13"> </span><span class="fs3">Copyrigh<span class="_ _4"></span>t<span class="_ _13"> </span><span class="ffb">&#169;<span class="_ _13"> </span></span>2014<span class="_ _13"> </span>Binary<span class="_ _13"> </span>Information<span class="_ _13"> </span>Press</span></div><div class="t m0 x1 hb y27 ff1 fs3 fc0 sc0 ls0 ws0">DOI:<span class="_ _13"> </span>10.12733/jics20103040</div></div><div class="pi" data-data='{"ctm":[1.611850,0.000000,0.000000,1.611850,0.000000,0.000000]}'></div></div> </body> </html>
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